#racing4 – Fakenham, Grand National and Pace Bias

I like logic, but it certainly doesn’t mean I am an expert in any form of math! I have a knack for picking things up fast which is great but having the time to get in-depth with anything is my fall down, my mind wanders and before you know it I’m back into a game of Overwatch before I know it… good and bad!

I’m enjoying what the GeeGeez platform is offering with racing at the moment, already it’s making a difference in my punting with the horses, giving me that extra confidence up and above of what I used to do in the past – which was only looking at the form numbers and possibly a snippet from racing post – now I can add some confidence!

The Grand National was today, even back in the day I would whack a quid here and there on, but like most punting it’s a crazy race, not just for the amount but the difference in every horse is outstanding.

I wouldn’t have even picked up on the class of the race before starting to dig into stats and more in-depth data on them, but now I went in with a little more fun knowing I ‘may’ have a chance.

I’ve also been looking up Pace Bias as well, a few posts from Matt Bisogno and Dave Renham on the Geegeez blog has made me want to dig more into all these different angles I can explore for that extra piece of information I could use, hopefully, I will try and make a section in this post with what I think it is, and how I’ve used it over the past races I’ve placed on.

Since my last post, I managed to go to Fakenham Races over the bank holiday (a family tradition) and it was really fun being at a course as it’s been a while, so here are some highlights of what I did with the platform and the races I went for, I broke even on the day but it’s a win for me overall, the more I learn the more can apply for bigger management of funds later on and not throw money out the door.

Fakenham (Bank Holiday Weekend)

I like the course when I visit, you can park bang in the middle for next to nothing and pretty much walk from your car to the post when the races kick in, these days I don’t tend to go to the bookies on site as it is all on my phone and pre-studied but here is what I managed to do on the day:

Lucky 15 – I still enjoy the L15’s, I know many from other forums and sources say they are a bit of a waste but having something small stake bets can make the accumulation pretty fun to rack up.

I went with the below in my selections this time, pretty much all of them were using the IE and a little of the Shortlist from the day before to give me an edge, I also went down the Jocky route as Brian Hughes was running that day (one thing I made a mistake on during) which was firing out wins everywhere!

Managed to get Glance at Me in at my number 1, which was a great price for the entry, but then I went for the backed and confident favorite for my second, Jerrash, this let me down, coming in at 6/4 I, and I expect a lot of other people was smacked out – he was topped out everywhere, datasets, tips, forums and should have been in for the win, but right before the 3rd last he wobbled (possibly hit the fence) and just pulled back!

From then the rest followed suit and I scraped back £13 quid by the end (lucky for that first).

I also had another win as I had a nose win on Glance on Me (from my L15) as well, I don’t usually double back a horse but I liked the confidence the dataset was giving me, along with some Jocky/Trainer stats, in with the past 2 races, my gut feeling was that he was getting stronger but had not moved up class just yet – so I exploited it…

He came in for me, which already broke me even from the previous placed bets:

Chelmsford (Today)

I had 2 races at Chelmsford today which worked well, I say well.. the first didn’t come but the second did!

The 12.30 had Buraback which I fancied, I more went on his C1 / 14 and 30 days stats, they all hit over 25% win rate which is my lookout if it’s in double figures for the runs themselves (10 and over).

The IV stood out here as well (as far as I know, anything over 1 is good for the IV, so x 3 (3.96) was even better!

Aintree / Grand National (Today)

I really enjoyed the national today, I know there were some starting changes and the slow before the first jump but it was exciting again to witness the prestigious event.

In this one, I had a look over Galvin, his past 3 races had placed which stood out:

The IE only stood out on the course, so he was familiar with it, and that was it, it was so competitive (to be expected) and with all the things that could go wrong it just opened up that ‘luck’ side of things to build a little confidence, I went EW and he landed for me in 4th, had a great run!

Pace Bias – What I think it is and how I use it!

So, as far as I can make out, Pace Bias can be used for some gritty placement of where the horse can be at the beginning of the race, many factors can come into this on how the jockey wants to out him early, what advice I would believe he receives from the trainer and the Draw (if there is one) from the gates if it’s a flat race.

I always wondered when the run-up to an open start happens, why the jockeys weave in and out of certain areas of a group, and this is to place them at certain areas of the field to get in the right place/area before they get the go.

Using the Geegeez dataset they give a really good overview of the Pace for each race, and calculate it based on a scoring system up to 15 with low, mid, and high parts of the field/course, using that against the IV score it can just add that extra confidence on a horse IF it gets in the right place / right time throughout the start of the race! – That’s how I have been using it for now at least.

You can see even with the well laid-out feed above that it just gives you that little bit of info on where a horse would need to be, and based on past performance what he has been told to do – it’s a great addition to another checkmark on choosing a winner!

I’ve touched around 5% on the subject, but I would certainly suggest a look over the following articles from their blog with it all, as I said it’s a huge subject, and lots of statistics go into it all.

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/running-well-against-a-pace-bias-part-1
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/running-well-against-a-pace-bias-part-2

And a nice quick video on how their own tool works:

Also, Geegeez does have a tool for tracking the races which are great, but I cannot resist an olf fashioned pen and paper for jotting down my notes, which so far I’m starting to up my game with my acronyms and shorthand… I highly recommend it when looking over the forms with a beer in hand!

Breaking even every time, which for me is a great start!

Until next time punters…

Neoburner (Ben)