#racing2 – New Years Day 2024 – Cheltenham / Heavy
Affiliate Note: I may earn a small commission if you go off-site by clicking one of my links, I like to be open and transparent but rest assured, none of these are at any additional cost to you. Read more here: Affiliate Disclosure
First of all, Happy New Year to all! Here’s hoping for a good year ahead (including the betting!).
So today, I had a go at Cheltenham and it wasn’t a bad day, using the GeeGeez data platform I was already able to make some informed choices for the runners today.
Interestingly, one of the additional pieces of information I have started to add to my ‘methodology’ is all based on the weather. It’s amazing how the dataset changes when the Going moves along or changes… by default today it was picked up with Heavy, but letting the first race go (12.20 pm) and listening to some of the post-race chats with a few of the Jockeys, I heard them saying it feels more Soft/Heavy instead of the day open ‘heavy’ Going – changing this on the dataset changed the stats the system pulled back, and I think, worked.
Going over some of the choices I made below, and how and why I came to choose them will hopefully give some insight into how powerful it can be:
Cheltenham / 14:05
Choice: Frero Banbou / EW
I went with this due to the base and statistics I found, the past 2 races he had been in were in fact at CHL and placed pretty well
Instant Expert also gave me a full line over the board in the GREEN
Outcome: Place Win
Cheltenham / 14:40
Choice: Butch / Win
Butch was a more in depth choice for me on this race, with the move from hearing what the jocky’s had said from the previous race from Heavy to Soft Heavy, I had adjusted the Going selection and the stats gave me some slight alternative readings, this time it had paid off.
His last 6 we’re looking promising with a month since his last race:
Instant Expert giving me more Green with a 5-year history, I had noticed he liked this course before but what stood out was the Distance, this one being 2m 7f he kept well:
Outcome: Win
Cheltenham / 15:15
Choice: Strong Leader / Win
This one wasn’t too good, I had rushed the analysis of the race as I had to get out of the door, on reflection I should have left it but lesson learned.
I purely went off the Pace stats for this one:
He seemed to be Prominent, which he was up until the last few then pulled up, what I didn’t spot and should have noticed was the outright favorite (Bob Olinger), slightly older, and had a good Heavy run on the last race.
It’s also a note with the amount of horses in the race, this time only the 4, it seems reading on a few of the blogs produced by the GeeGee team that bigger and largr races are better for study.
